Providence 2014-2015 Season
Last season Providence fought their way from barely making the tournament to going on to win the championship. Yet even after winning their final four games to secure
the title, they had only the third highest Elo rating at the end of the season
. Despite the formula feeling
that they still trailed behind Boston University and North Dakota, Elo does a good job of tracking the team's climb over the season.
Providence started the year with just a 1568 rating that was only slightly above average. The season actually started a bit poorly for the Friars as they went 1-3-2 over their first
six games, and saw their Elo rating fall to 1539 by the end of October. In the following months Providence started winning again, and following a six game winning streak reached a high
Elo of 1632. With the exception of five games the previous season, this marked the highest Elo rating in the team's history. The rest of the season had more mixed results, ending with
getting eliminated by New Hampshire in the quarterfinals of the Hockey East playoffs.
Providence then entered the NCAA playoffs with a rating of 1591 that was only slightly higher then where they were to start the season. They entered the tournament as a four seed with a
tough stretch of games ahead of them. In their first game against Miami the Elo ratings only game the Friars a 42.7% chance of winning the game. Yet they won. In their next game against
Denver, their odds only increased slightly to 44.7%, but they overcame the odds to win again. Finally in their third game against Nebraska-Omaha, Providence was finally the favorite with
a 56.7% chance in this game.
In the finals they played against Boston University who had been putting together a great season. Boston had actually started the year with a below average rating of just 1478, but
following a consistent season had improved this to a very respectable 1663 by the start of the NCAA tournament. Following three straight wins (including a victory against a tough
North Dakota team), Boston University's Elo rating was up to 1701 as they entered the championship game. Providence had also seen their ratings rise, but entering the championship it
was only up to 1638. This meant that the Friars were only given a 41.0% chance of winning the game. However, forty-one is a long ways away from zero and Providence defeated Boston University
4-3, giving them an Elo rating of 1655 to end the season. This gave both Providence both the national championship, but also their
highest Elo rating in the team's history