2016 Atlantic Hockey Playoffs

← Week Two
Week Three

Army had the biggest suprise in the second round, after sweeping Holy Cross despite being given just a 30% chance of winning the series. Robert Morris and Air Force were both heavy favorites in their matchups. Meanwhile RIT was a slight underdog, but with a 43% chance of advancing their win was not a real surprise. The seven teams eliminated so far had been given a combined 33.8% chance of winning the tournament before it all began.

Robert Morris will have the easist first round match up with a 67% chance of beating Army. However, Army overcame very similar odds just last week. Air Force and RIT are expected to have a close matchup that is sure to build upon the long rivarly that these two teams have had in the conference.

The formula used here does not account for home ice advantage, so RIT is not given any boost for playing at a "neautral site" just 10 miles from its campus. However, last weekend the away team actually won 56% of the games anyhow.

The following table shows the odds of each team winning in each of the remaing two rounds.

Robert Morris67.2538.70
Air Force57.8529.78

Winning the Atlantic Hockey tournament is the only option for any of these teams to reach the NCAA tournament. Win probablities for each game are based off of each team's current Elo ranking. As a result Robert Morris (who at 1565 has the higest Elo ranking) is the favorite to win the whole tournament.